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Analysts Upbeat as Netflix Adds Almost 2 Million Subscribers (MESA)

Analysts had a mostly positive reaction to the stronger-than-expected results that Netflix reported Jan. 18 for its fourth quarter ended Dec. 31. But analysts pointed to continued concerns over issues including increased competition and the enormous investments that Netflix is making to produce its own growing amount of original content and to have exclusive streaming rights to content from other companies.

Netflix added 7.05 million net new members globally in the quarter, higher than its own forecast of 5.20 million and last year’s fourth-quarter performance of 5.59 million, it said in a letter to shareholders. It was the largest quarter of net additions in the company’s history and was “driven by strong acquisition trends” in its domestic U.S. and international business segments, it said.

The company added 1.93 million subscribers domestically in the quarter, beating its 1.45 million forecast and the 1.56 million added a year earlier. It added 5.12 million international members, topping its 3.75 million forecast and the 4.04 million added a year earlier. More than 47% of Netflix members are now outside the U.S., it said. Global streaming revenue grew 41% year- over-year to $2.4 billion, while total revenue jumped to $2.48 billion from $1.82 billion. Profit increased to $67 million, or 15 cents a share, from $43 million, or 10 cents a share, in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Netflix is “reaching critical mass with consumers in an increasing number of countries,” based on its user experience, content and pricing, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney said in a research note Jan. 18. Rating Netflix stock as “outperform,” he said he believed Netflix had “achieved a level of sustainable scale, growth, and profitability that isn’t currently reflected in its stock price.”

But Mahaney said risks included “higher-than-expected execution costs associated with multiple international launches,” as well as the “potential for rising content costs” and “ever present competitive risk” from rivals including Amazon, Hulu and YouTube.

The fourth-quarter results pointed to “building momentum” for Netflix outside the U.S. and, although “strength was broad based, we believe major European markets are starting to accelerate,” Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne said Jan. 19 in a research note.

The larger number of consumers who rejoined Netflix as members in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter suggested that “many of the members that canceled the service” after a price increase have “ultimately come back,” he said. But he too pointed to the risk of increased competition.

Macquarie Research analyst Tim Nollen upgraded Netflix stock to “neutral” from “outperform,” based on the fourth-quarter results. But he said in a research note: “We remain cautious on some items we have discussed at length in previous notes, namely rising content and other costs, and concurrent [free cash flow] burn in the face of rising competition.”

Netflix CFO David Wells told analysts, in an interview webcast from the company’s website after the results were announced, that the company “will organically fund more and more of our own content expansion with the growth of our operating profit.” Netflix shares were up more than 4% at $138.70 in afternoon trading Jan. 19.